Parties are ready to boost the EU’s clean energy transition (except the far right)
I have dived into the programmes of the main European parties, so you don’t have to.
It’s EU election week! A moment of truth for the continent.
But what will the polls mean for EU’s energy? How will we keep on the lights in the next five years? European parties’ manifestos offer a clear indication of the direction we’re going in.
I have paid special attention to the biggest parties and left out ID as they haven’t published a manifesto.
My main takeaway: there’s a general consensus on three topics
The end of fossil fuels will remain
Renewables will be a protective weapon
It’s time to make the Green Deal real, and boost cleantech investment
At the opposite pole, the far-right ECR is the only party intending to undo the Green Deal and double down on the waning combustion engine.
Let’s take a look…
1. Fossil fuel exit
The end of oil, gas and coal is on most agendas. All see the need to achieve the climate targets the EU is legally committed to - and to implement the agreement reached at COP28 in Dubai, where the 'transition away from fossil fuels' was officially launched.
Most parties include the fossil phase-out in their programmes. The EPP stresses electrification, clean energy and energy efficiency - a very similar line to the Socialists who are maybe a little more explicit: their goal is to achieve a 'completely renewable and clean' mix.
A date? None is given by the EPP, who will discuss it with Member States, appealing to their freedom to choose their energy mix. The socialists’ have not set a date in their programme either.
The Greens say fossil fuels should be phased out by 2040 (coal by 2030), and fossil fuel subsidies should end by 2025. The Left goes further, wanting to bring climate neutrality forward to 2035.
While the ALDE liberals do not directly mention the phase-out, they highlight their commitment to the new 90% net emission reduction target by 2040 proposed by the European Commission.
ECR, however, takes a different stance. Without abandoning the general objective of ‘reducing emissions’, they call for a reversal of the Green Deal and, instead of promoting electric mobility, they support innovation in combustion engines.
2. Renewables as a protective weapon
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine coupled with our former dependency on Russian fossil fuels has taught us some lessons: clean energy is not only good for the planet but also for our security.
This is the view of the EPP - the party expected to win the elections - but also an idea shared by most major parties.
As part of their energy policy, ALDE liberals say they will reduce our dependence on external resources as a 'strategic imperative'.
The Socialists focus on the need for stable prices and affordability, as well as an energy market reform (another one?), as a way to reinforce Europe's strategic autonomy.
The Greens explicitly highlight the link between energy security and renewables. They advocate a transition built on renewables as a way to maintain our independence from autocrats, and 'a resilient and democratically managed energy system'.
The Left supports a transformation of the economy away from dependence on fossil fuels in general.
Again, the far-right ECR is the only party that does not link renewables to independence from foreign powers. While they talk of an 'unapologetic' commitment to 'revolutionising' energy security, including nuclear and geothermal, they are more vague on how to achieve it, preferring to leave the energy mix to each Member State.
3. The Green Deal part two: decarbonise industries, boost EU cleantech, social justice
The next legislature will be marked by the implementation of the Green Deal. The main parties see the transition as an opportunity and have included it in their programmes.
The EPP emphasises the Green Deal’s economic opportunities, and how it has given 'a clear sense of direction for investment and innovation'. Their next step will be an industrial strategy that supports every sector in building its decarbonisation business model.
For the Socialists, it is time to put the focus on social justice. The most vulnerable are paying the highest price for the climate emergency, and to solve it, they propose 'a Green Deal with a red heart'. Climate neutrality must be a force for social progress, their programme says.
The Greens have a similar stance, calling for a 'Green and Social Deal' to fight the cost-of-living crisis. They want to invest in 'essentials' and public services, such as home renovations and public transport, to make life more affordable. There's also a nod to a cleantech boost to build a 'competitive economy, creating millions of green jobs at the cutting edge of industry'.
The liberal manifesto is somewhat more abstract on this point, focusing on the implementation of already approved laws and targets. The development of clean technologies is also included.
Again, the ECR's far-right discourse is in opposition to all the above parties. They speak of a 'current over-ideological green climate policy'. While committing to implementing the laws already passed, they hint at rolling back the phase-out of combustion cars. That said, ECR also focuses on a just transition, 'revitalising Europe's core industrial sectors'.
The Left sees the Green Deal as a trigger for an ‘ecological turnaround’, but points to capitalism as the root problem. They propose ‘overcoming neoliberalism and a capitalist system that exploits nature, women, and men’.
4. Carbon capture, hydrogen, nuclear. Mentions anyone?
Renewables seem to be a clear bet. All parties (except the ECR) call for their expansion. But what about the trickier ones?
In general, the EPP doubles down on 'technological neutrality' with few mentions of specific technologies. The EU should set targets, and the market would find the solutions - a concept the liberals and the ECR also find appealing.
Some manifestos are more specific than others; that’s why some take the work of descending into the nitty-gritties, while others don’t. It’s anyway a useful sign to look at some of the technologies that do get mentions.
Hydrogen is a popular one. For the EPP, it is a technology 'to be developed', and call for cross-border infrastructure and a 'rapid ramp-up of international hydrogen production'.
Greens put the focus on green hydrogen as an alternative that comes with higher risks and costs than renewables for both consumers and industry. In the Greens’ view, hydrogen should be reserved for backup in the power system, heavy industry, long-distance shipping, and flights where electrification is not feasible.
Nuclear will be another big hot potato. The EPP demands intensifying research on innovative energy technologies, with a special focus on nuclear fusion, while liberals say we should embrace nuclear power as a tool to 'accelerate decarbonisation' (no surprise). The ECR goes further and says Europe should ‘champion’ nuclear.
For the Greens, the main point is that nuclear is not 'greenwashed as sustainable'.
Finally, another buzzword: carbon capture. Not a popular one this time as it’s only mentioned by the Liberals as a complement to renewables, carbon-neutral, low-carbon and waste-based energy sources.
Dive deeper: What can we expect from Europe’s future energy?
Carbon Brief: EU election 2024: What the manifestos say on energy and climate change
Op-ed in FT by Macron and Scholz: we must strengthen European sovereignty
Reuters: EU clears law to increase domestic green tech production
Euronews: Climate action will boost energy security in Europe by 8% by 2030, IMF Says
Xinhua: Rapid rollout of clean technologies makes energy cheaper: IEA
What will the European Parliament look like after June? Latest polls
Perhaps the most talked about polls in Brussels in recent weeks are those of Euronews, developed by IPSOS. As part of its recent expansion, Euronews has launched a website summarising the expected results in all 27 countries.
What's new in the polls, Euronews? As with others, the forecast shows a significant rightward tilt. The EPP and the socialists would remain more or less as they are today, although ID and ECR would advance strongly (82 and 75 seats respectively; up from 58 and 67 in the previous legislature). Renew would fall from 100 to 86 seats, and the Greens would drop from 72 to 50.
Calendar: Coming up
6-9 June: EU elections
9 June: Belgian federal and regional elections
17 June: Informal meeting of EU leaders
27-28 June: European Council meeting
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