Will Hoekstra defend a 90% emissions reduction target by 2040? [Enlighten me #1]
The Commission is to present several options for a 2040 climate target on 6 February. Leaks show Brussels’ preferred option would be a 90% target, in line with the latest scientific advice, which recommends a 90-95% range. The draft paints a broad picture of how Europe will phase-out of fossil fuels.
I look into the latest polls ahead of the European elections. Europe is taking a right turn, but the outcome is still open.
Find some of the best stories of the month in the energy & climate world.
Haven’t prepared your February calendar yet? Here are some dates you shouldn’t miss
Hi all,
This is issue #1 of Enlighten Me. I often get to speak to lots of interesting, well-informed people with very well-informed takes on how the globe is transitioning to an electrified world.
This made me think - why keep their valuable stories to myself? Whether you are a diplomat, a journalist, a think-tanker, an engineer, an environmentalist… In this newsletter, I want to share some of the stories I hear in Brussels; spiced up with ideas heard in the European capitals.
Expect some trial and error in the next few months - Tips and tales are more than welcome!
2040 target - Will Hoekstra really defend ‘at least 90%’?
‘We will defend a minimum target of at least 90% net reduction by 2040’ - this was climate commissioner Hoesktra's promise to the European Parliament members a few months back when he auditioned for his new job.
Next week, he will have a golden opportunity to show he meant business.
On Tuesday, the Commission will present a long-awaited communication about the EU’s 2040 emissions target.
Watch out for the word ‘communication’.
It is not a proposal per se. The Commission is expected to present several options to be discussed among national leaders and ministers. A leaked document shows three scenarios: 80% reduction, 85-90%, and 90 to 95%. Brussels’ preferred option would be 90% (without the ‘at least’ part).
The draft includes a broad pathway off fossil fuels. By 2040, electricity would be virtually decarbonised and fossil fuel consumption would be 80% lower than in 1990 (this target is lower than what NGOs see as necessary, and lower than what’s proposed by other models, such as Agora’s).
Under the Commission’s draft scenario, the EU would save €2.8 trillion in fossil fuel imports between 2031 and 2050.
Carbon capture will share some of the spotlight as an ‘industrial carbon management’ strategy is also due. The Commission is expected to come up with an estimation for the millions of tonnes of CO2 that will have to be captured to reach the EU's 'net' target. A battle is on. More than 100 NGOs are outraged and accuse the plan of being 'a smokescreen for continued use of fossil fuels'.
A new industrial Green Deal is looming
A new industrial era is beginning around global competition to develop net-zero technologies. The Commission’s draft shows how aware Brussels is of this - and calls to ‘fully embrace industrial transformation’.
The leaked document acknowledges how China is dominating ‘many cleantech supply chains’ by building on long-term planning and subsidies. The US, on the other hand, is attracting investments with large and ‘simple’ fiscal incentives. The Commission sees Europe’s strength in its ‘stability and predictable policies’.
Reaching net zero and staying competitive in the new net-zero industrial era will require investments worth €1.5 trillion a year, numbers reported by the Financial Times show.
An independent study released this week backs these numbers. Institut Rousseau calculates that the EU needs €40 trillion worth of investments by 2050 ‘to grant the EU prosperity and climate neutrality’. Experts demand a target for additional investments worth 2.3% of the EU’s GDP… and flexibility in fiscal rules so that governments have the space to make these investments.
As Hoekstra himself puts it, businesses need clear targets, and the to stay the course, as companies in heavy industry have a ‘very long investment horizon’.
A new industrial Green Deal seems to be on the cards for the next Commission.
All eyes on how Šefčovič and Hoekstra. But what about Scholz and Macron?
While some are quick to blame Brussels when things go south, the Commission’s word is of little value if national governments aren’t on the same page. Will countries support a 90% - or at least 90% - target?
The big countries seem to back the idea. A group of eleven states sent a letter demanding an ‘ambitious’ target in line with scientific advice, although no concrete numbers were given. Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands are some of the signatories.
What will the other ministers say once the Commission's scenarios are on the table for all to see?
What seems likely is that we will not have to wait long to find out. International obligations dictate that the EU must report to the UN on its 2035 targets - something that should go hand in hand in setting the 2040 target.
Expect movement by June
The new 2040 target is expected to be high on the agendas of the next meetings of environment ministers... and leaders. Talks at both levels are likely to go in parallel. Both ministers and leaders will have quite a few opportunities to do so in multiple summits coming up in the next few months - even though other urgent issues will compete for attention. Ahem, Israel, Ukraine, now farmers…
The June leaders' summit could be a key moment. On the table will be deciding the strategy of the next Commission. Agreeing on the 2040 climate target could be part of these discussions.
Protests and elections looming will provide a colourful backdrop. On the one hand, farmers across Europe are protesting… and on the other, a looming movement against austerity measures gathered thousands in Brussels a few weeks ago.
The EU elections on 9 June, with a rising far right but also massive anti-far right demonstrations in Germany, are set to be the most decisive ones in recent times.
Dive deeper: some good reads about the 2040 target
Euronews: Fiscal straightjacket set to block energy transition, leading Green warns
Euractiv: EU’s looming green election backlash – here’s what to expect
Financial Times: EU must invest about €1.5tn a year to meet net zero targets, says Brussels
Politico: EU mulls ‘Industrial’ twin for Green Deal as election pressure bites
Le Monde: The European Green Pact faces growing opposition (in French)
Euronews: Belgian PM downplays talk of environment policy pause
What will the European Parliament look like after June? Latest polls
The composition of the European Parliament after the June elections will have a decisive impact on the energy transition in Europe.
Each month, I will gather some of the best data around the elections: vote projections, European citizens' interests...
ECFR survey - Far right on the rise but coalition uncertain
Polling by the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations has made the rounds across Europe.
Results show a ‘sharp right turn’, with so-called ‘anti European’ parties as the main choice in nine countries: Austria, Belgium, Czechia, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia.
However, the grand coalition of EPP, S&D, and Renew would retain more than half of the seats (54%), but it would be a much thinner majority than today, and probably not enough. ECFR counts the Greens out of this coalition, whose results would drop in comparison to the last election.
Delve into their analysis here.
EU Matrix has also published a forecast reflecting a similar trend, with the right-wing side of the chamber growing bigger, and they don’t see the conditions for ‘stable right-wing majorities’. ID would become the third force, and ECR would come close behind Renew.
Some stories worth reading this month:
Hinkley C: In 2016, British politicians decided to build a brand-new nuclear plant as they embraced ‘nuclear renaissance’. A plant the size of Hinkley would cost £9 billion and Brits were promised they’d cook their 2017 Christmas turkeys with the power. Fast forward, the project keeps being delayed. The plant is expected to cost £46 billion - and delays are keeping turkeys safe from nuclear electrons until 2030! Michael Liebreich tells the story.
68% say they would be likely to vote if European elections were held in a week’s time - nine points higher than 5 years earlier, says latest European Parliament survey
Biden’s administration puts on hold the approval of an enormous new natural gas export terminal. The Energy Department will analyse the environmental impact of the proposed CP2 Project, on the Louisiana coast. New York Times story.
The residents of a village of 2,300 inhabitants in France have financed their wind farm themselves. Villagers (and shareholders) celebrated as the first parts were put in place. ‘Wind projects are very profitable’, says the coop's chair. TF1 reports.
French EV charging network Electra raises €304 million in capital. Funds will enable the company to multiply its number of charging stations across Europe. Story by Sifted.
Calendar: coming up
1 Feb (today): Special European Council, focus on the next MFF, with funding for Ukraine and a new EU-wide fund for strategic technologies. Farmers are likely to be part of the agenda even if not officially there.
5-8 Feb: European Parliament plenary in Strasbourg. The agenda includes a debate about the 2040 climate target, the situation of Ukraine, and Norway’s decision to advance seabed mining in the Arctic.
6 Feb: European Commission to present a communication on the EU’s 2040 climate target, along with a communication on industrial carbon management.
11 Feb: Second round of presidential elections in Finland: Stubb vs Haavisto
13-14 Feb: 2024 IEA Ministerial Meeting, marking the 50th Anniversary of the Agency's founding
16 Feb: Munich Security Conference
25 Feb: Parliamentary elections in Belarus
26-29 Feb: European Parliament plenary in Strasbourg
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